First let me say, I think there is a decent chance that The Winds of Winter could release in late 2022.
It would be the perfect time to capitalize on the buzz that I'm sure will be generated when HBO's House of the Dragon show releases later in august of this year.
Assuming an 8-10 episode season of House of the Dragon, the show would finish around early October.
Can you imagine a better surprise after the season finale than announcing The Winds of Winter will release during the 2022 holiday season?
It would be an incredible marketing opportunity for George. And would give his hardcore fan base something to look forward to.
The above was my optimistic take on where we stand on a release date.
My more pessimistic stance says that we won't get the Winds of Winter until 2023 likely holiday 2023.
George has already announced that Rise of the Dragon, an illustrated deluxe reference book based on the same time period of his novel fire and blood, will release in October 2022.
The release of Rise of the Dragon would indicate that we probably shouldn't expect anything else book wise from George this year.
It's probably for the best. At the end of the day, I want a high quality book from George. We've waited over a decade. What's 1-2 more additional years if it allows him to truly flesh out his vision and give us the type of story that we've all come to enjoy so much.